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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Colts.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 131.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • Josh Downs rates as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, completing an outstanding 70.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is implied by the Colts being a 3-point favorite this week.
  • The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 55.2 per game on average).
  • Josh Downs has been a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack this year (17.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (25.8%).
  • Josh Downs's 3.4 adjusted receptions per game this season signifies a material reduction in his pass-catching skills over last season's 5.1 mark.
  • The Texans pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (56.8%) versus WRs this year (56.8%).

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