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Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's game.

With a 63.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the NFL has been the Colts.

When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the best in the league this year.

Josh Downs's 74.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching talent over last season's 70.6% rate.

This year, the deficient Chiefs pass defense has conceded a whopping 70.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the model to run just 64.2 total plays in this contest: the 8th-lowest number among all teams this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.

Josh Downs's 17.5% Target Share this year shows a meaningful reduction in his air attack usage over last year's 25.8% mark.

Josh Downs's pass-catching performance worsened this season, compiling a measly 3.6 adjusted catches vs 5.1 last season.

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Kansas City's group of CBs has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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Josh Downs ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 12