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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts rank as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 64.7% pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Colts to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast Josh Downs to accrue 6.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 76th percentile among WRs.
  • The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Josh Downs's 75.4% Adjusted Catch% this year marks an impressive growth in his receiving talent over last year's 70.6% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Colts are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 27.4 per game) this year.
  • Josh Downs has been a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game this year (18.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (25.8%).
  • Josh Downs's 3.5 adjusted catches per game this year reflects a substantial regression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 5.1 rate.
  • The Falcons pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (60%) vs. wideouts this year (60.0%).

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