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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Colts offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.

The predictive model expects Josh Downs to total 7.0 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.

With a top-tier 25.8% Target Rate (88th percentile) last year, Josh Downs rates as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in the league.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Colts profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL last year.

With a stellar 5.1 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) last year, Josh Downs ranks among the top WRs in the NFL in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier weather this week.

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