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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-115/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts have been the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.6% pass rate.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.
  • The Steelers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (40.7 per game) this year.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts grades out as the best in the league this year.
  • Josh Downs's 79.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a material improvement in his receiving skills over last season's 70.6% figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • The Colts have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
  • Josh Downs's 17.6% Target% this season indicates a meaningful decrease in his passing attack volume over last season's 25.8% rate.
  • Josh Downs has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (40.0 per game) than he did last season (49.0 per game).
  • Josh Downs's 34.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a significant regression in his receiving skills over last year's 55.0 rate.

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