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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-115/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The model projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.
  • With an exceptional 24.1% Target% (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Downs places among the wide receivers with the highest volume in the NFL.
  • When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football (58.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Indianapolis Colts.
  • Josh Downs has accrued many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (24.0) this year than he did last year (55.0).
  • Josh Downs's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season conveys a material regression in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 5.3% figure.
  • The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (61.0%).
  • Since the start of last season, the daunting Los Angeles Rams pass defense has surrendered the 6th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a measly 3.4 YAC.

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