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Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-115/-115).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.Opposing offenses have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the Broncos defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.The Indianapolis offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.Josh Downs checks in as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 52.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.Josh Downs grades out as one of the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in a remarkable 70.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 76th percentile among WRs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.At the present time, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Indianapolis Colts.While Josh Downs has earned 24.7% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of Indianapolis's passing offense in this contest at 19.0%.With a subpar 7.4 adjusted yards per target (19th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Downs has been as one of the worst pass-catching WRs in the league.Josh Downs is positioned as one of the worst wide receivers in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 1st percentile.
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