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Josh Downs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-112/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Colts.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 131.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Josh Downs rates as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, completing an outstanding 70.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Colts being a 3-point favorite this week.

The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 55.2 per game on average).

Josh Downs has been a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack this year (17.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (25.8%).

After accruing 49.0 air yards per game last year, Josh Downs has seen a big downtick this year, now pacing 39.0 per game.

Josh Downs has notched quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (33.0) this year than he did last year (55.0).

More Josh Downs Player Props

Josh Downs Receiving YardsPlayer Prop Week 13

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Josh Downs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13