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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • With a 63.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the NFL has been the Colts.
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the best in the league this year.
  • Josh Downs's 74.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching talent over last season's 70.6% rate.
  • This year, the deficient Chiefs pass defense has conceded a whopping 70.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the model to run just 64.2 total plays in this contest: the 8th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
  • Josh Downs's 17.5% Target Share this year shows a meaningful reduction in his air attack usage over last year's 25.8% mark.
  • After totaling 49.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Downs has fallen off this season, now pacing 39.0 per game.
  • Josh Downs has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (55.0).

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