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Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-108/-102).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -108.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Colts offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.The predictive model expects Josh Downs to total 7.0 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.With a top-tier 25.8% Target Rate (88th percentile) last year, Josh Downs rates as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in the league.When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Colts profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL last year.Josh Downs checks in as one of the top WRs in the NFL last year, averaging an impressive 55.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.The Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier weather this week.With a feeble 7.5 adjusted yards per target (19th percentile) last year, Josh Downs rates among the worst wide receivers in the league in the NFL.Last year, the strong Dolphins defense has conceded a puny 128.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-best in the NFL.
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