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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Allen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +111 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +116.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
  • The Bills O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • Josh Allen's 70.9% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material gain in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.7% mark.
  • Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-fewest TDs in football (0.50 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
  • The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are forecasted by the projections to run only 62.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • This week, Josh Allen is anticipated by the predictive model to average the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 33.4.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the league.
  • The predictive model expects Josh Allen to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the end zone in this contest (31.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (15.2% in games he has played).

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