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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Allen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-114/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills will be rolling out backup QB Josh Allen in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the best in the NFL this year.
  • Josh Allen's throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.7% to 71.1%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 48.4% red zone run rate.
  • In this week's contest, Josh Allen is forecasted by the projection model to wind up with the 3rd-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 33.1.
  • While Josh Allen has earned 18.2% of his team's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Buffalo's rushing attack near the goal line in this game at 25.0%.
  • Josh Allen has run for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (98th percentile).

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