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Josh Allen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-115/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the best in the NFL this year.

Josh Allen's passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.7% to 71.2%.

With a remarkable ratio of 1.57 per game (83rd percentile), Josh Allen ranks among the best TD throwers in the league this year.

This year, the shaky Patriots defense has been gouged for a massive 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

This year, the stout Patriots run defense has given up a measly 0.38 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 2nd-smallest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the 8th-most run-heavy team in the league in the red zone (47.2% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

In this game, Josh Allen is expected by the projections to average the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.1.

The projections expect Josh Allen to be a more important option in his team's run game near the goal line in this week's game (27.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).

More Josh Allen Player Props

Josh Allen TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15