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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+104/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -132.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Josh Allen's 68.2% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a meaningful growth in his passing accuracy over last season's 64.7% rate.
  • This year, the feeble Chiefs defense has been gouged for a monstrous 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects Josh Allen to throw 32.8 passes in this contest, on balance: the 7th-fewest out of all QBs.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.1 per game) this year.
  • The Chiefs defense has conceded the 2nd-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.00 per game this year.

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