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Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Saints defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season.

Josh Allen's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.7% to 70.8%.

Josh Allen has been among the best touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 1.25 per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a huge 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bills since the start of last season (only 56.0 per game on average).

This week, Josh Allen is anticipated by the projections to average the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.5.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Saints defense has given up a paltry 69.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-best rate in football.

More Josh Allen Player Props

Josh Allen TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4