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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.

Josh Allen's 68.5% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteworthy gain in his passing precision over last year's 64.7% rate.

Josh Allen has been among the leading TD throwers in football since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 1.67 per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.

Since the start of last season, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has given up a colossal 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-highest rate in football.

The Miami cornerbacks project as the 5th-worst collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 12-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 51.6% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.1 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.

The projections expect Josh Allen to attempt 31.6 passes in this contest, on balance: the 9th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

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