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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 55.6% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL in these cases has been the Buffalo Bills.

The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Josh Allen's throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.7% to 74.6%.

With a stellar rate of 1.76 per game (86th percentile), Josh Allen places as one of the leading touchdown throwers in football since the start of last season.

The New York Jets safeties project as the 9th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Bills being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Bills to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 5th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Bills since the start of last season (a measly 55.7 per game on average).

In this game, Josh Allen is projected by our trusted projection set to average the 6th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.3.

More Josh Allen Player Props

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