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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-213).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -172 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -213.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Josh Allen's 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful growth in his passing accuracy over last season's 64.7% rate.
  • With a stellar ratio of 1.47 per game (78th percentile), Josh Allen places as one of the top TD passers in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 52.0% red zone pass rate.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This week, Josh Allen is expected by the model to total the fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 29.7.

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