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Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+116/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -148.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the best in the NFL this year.

Josh Allen's passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.7% to 71.2%.

With a remarkable ratio of 1.57 per game (83rd percentile), Josh Allen ranks among the best TD throwers in the league this year.

This year, the shaky Patriots defense has been gouged for a massive 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

The Patriots defense has given up the 10th-most TDs through the air in football: 1.62 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect the Bills to be the 8th-least pass-focused team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.8% red zone pass rate.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

In this game, Josh Allen is expected by the projections to average the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.1.

The New England Patriots linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

More Josh Allen Player Props

Josh Allen TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15