My Account Log Out
 
 
Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-123/+103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -123.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Josh Allen's 69.8% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a meaningful improvement in his passing precision over last year's 64.7% rate.
  • The Bengals defense has allowed the 2nd-most passing TDs in the league: 2.08 per game this year.
  • The Bengals linebackers profile as the worst unit in football this year in defending receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 5.5 points.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 51.5% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 51.8% red zone pass rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 127.4 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The model projects Josh Allen to throw 31.4 passes in this game, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all QBs.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™