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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+122/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +122 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +122.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Josh Allen's passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.7% to 69.6%.
  • With an excellent rate of 1.64 per game (78th percentile), Josh Allen stands as one of the top touchdown throwers in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 9th-least pass-focused team in football in the red zone (52.9% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Bills.
  • At the present time, the most sluggish paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league against the Texans defense this year (64.5% Adjusted Completion%).

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