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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-109/+101).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +101.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense last year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

When talking about pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the league last year.

With an exceptional rate of 1.75 per game (88th percentile), Josh Allen places among the best TD passers in the league last year.

Last year, the anemic Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded a whopping 1.65 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 10th-biggest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 6th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (53.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the projections to call just 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-fewest on the slate this week.

The Bills have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

Last year, the daunting Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded a paltry 69.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 10th-smallest rate in football.

The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league last year in pass coverage.

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