Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-106/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.0% red zone pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Josh Allen has been among the top touchdown throwers in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 2.19 per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 37.3 passes in this week's game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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