Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 71.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL versus the New England Patriots defense this year (65.2%).
The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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