Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this game, Josh Allen is anticipated by the projections to garner the 6th-most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 5.1.
This year, the strong Bengals run defense has given up a mere 5.00 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 29th-smallest rate in the league.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Cincinnati's LB corps has been terrible this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The model projects the Bills to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 36.6% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Bills to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Josh Allen has been a much smaller piece of his offense's running game this year (18.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (27.2%).
As it relates to run support (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year.
Josh Allen's 23.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year signifies an impressive diminishment in his rushing skills over last year's 48.0 rate.

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