Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
In this game, Josh Allen is projected by the projections to earn the 4th-most carries out of all QBs with 7.1.
The predictive model expects Josh Allen to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game in this week's contest (26.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (21.2% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 2nd-least run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 33.0% run rate.
When talking about executing run-blocking assignments (and the effect it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year.
Josh Allen has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
Josh Allen's ground effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating just 5.73 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.24 mark last year.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Dallas's DE corps has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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