Josh Allen Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints · Week 4, 2025

Updated Sep 28, 2025 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 216.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 216.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 216.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Saints defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season.
Josh Allen's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.7% to 70.8%.
With a terrific 8.25 adjusted yards-per-target (87th percentile) this year, Josh Allen stands as one of the best per-play passers in the league.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bills since the start of last season (only 56.0 per game on average).
This week, Josh Allen is anticipated by the projections to average the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.5.
Josh Allen's 204.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a significant decrease in his throwing proficiency over last year's 237.0 mark.

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