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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 225.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 226.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 225.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills will be rolling out backup QB Josh Allen in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the best in the NFL this year.
  • Josh Allen's throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.7% to 71.1%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • In this week's contest, Josh Allen is forecasted by the projection model to wind up with the 3rd-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 33.1.
  • Josh Allen's 211.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year illustrates a significant regression in his passing proficiency over last year's 237.0 figure.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-lowest clip in football vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.5% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the strong Jaguars defense has surrendered the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing teams: a feeble 7.0 yards.

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