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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 226.5 (+105/-2500).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 224.5 @ -124 before it was bet up to 226.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Josh Allen's passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.7% to 69.6%.
  • Josh Allen comes in as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a remarkable 8.35 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 91st percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the most sluggish paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • This year, the imposing Houston Texans defense has conceded a measly 181.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the fewest in the NFL.
  • The Houston Texans pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, allowing 6.52 adjusted yards-per-target: the fewest in the league.

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