Josh Allen Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Passing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 10, 2024 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 227.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 236.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 227.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 62.3% pass rate.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
The Bills O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
With a terrific 7.86 adjusted yards-per-target (83rd percentile) this year, Josh Allen ranks among the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL.
This year, the porous Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed a whopping 257.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst in football.

Favors Under

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The fewest plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (a measly 52.7 per game on average).
Josh Allen has passed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (229.0) this season than he did last season (261.0).
As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Indianapolis's CB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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