Josh Allen Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 241.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 252.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 241.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
In logging a monstrous 36.6 pass attempts per game this year, Josh Allen slots in among the top quarterbacks in the league (76th percentile) by this measure.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Allen grades out as one of the top quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a stellar 272.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.
Josh Allen's 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates an impressive gain in his throwing precision over last season's 64.2% mark.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
This year, the daunting Jets defense has surrendered a puny 181.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-best in football.

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