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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Pass Attempts
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+108/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.7% pass rate.

Josh Allen has attempted 38.1 throws per game this year, grading out in the 86th percentile among quarterbacks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.

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