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Josh Allen Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-125/+112).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.Josh Allen's 71.1% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a significant boost in his throwing accuracy over last year's 64.7% rate.The New England cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.The predictive model expects Josh Allen to throw 32.3 passes in this contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
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