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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Carries
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-136/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -134 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -136.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to run on 45.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.
  • In this game, Josh Allen is forecasted by the predictive model to accrue the 7th-most carries out of all QBs with 6.2.
  • Josh Allen isn't afraid to run the ball himself, taking on 20.3% of his offense's run game usage this year, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to QBs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

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