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Jordan Mason

Jordan Mason Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Jordan Mason Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+210/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -240.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.6% red zone pass rate.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • Jordan Mason's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 79.3% to 92.9%.
  • This year, the weak Commanders defense has yielded a colossal 74.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.
  • The Commanders defense has yielded the 7th-most receiving TDs in the league to running backs: 0.25 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.
  • Out of all RBs, Jordan Mason ranks in the 95th percentile for red zone carries this year, comprising 65.5% of the usage in his offense's ground game near the goal line.
  • When talking about air yards, Jordan Mason ranks in the measly 14th percentile among RBs this year, averaging just -4.0 per game.
  • With a dreadful ratio of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Jordan Mason places among the bottom receiving TD-scorers in the league when it comes to RBs this year.

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