Jordan Love Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 19, 2025

Updated Jan 11, 2026 1:02 AM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Love Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+560/-640).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +720 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +560.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Green Bay Packers will be starting backup QB Clayton Tune in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
With an awful ratio of just 0.00 TDs on the ground per game (2nd percentile), Jordan Love has been among the bottom running QBs in the league this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in football against the Bears defense this year (73.9% Adjusted Completion%).
The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the most passing touchdowns in football: 1.82 per game this year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
With a 51.5% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL in this setting has been the Green Bay Packers.
The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (just 54.9 per game on average).
The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Jordan Love to attempt 32.2 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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