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Jordan Love

Jordan Love TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-159/+118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
  • Jordan Love's passing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.9% to 71.3%.
  • With an outstanding ratio of 1.60 per game (93rd percentile), Jordan Love ranks as one of the best touchdown throwers in the NFL this year.
  • The Bengals defense has surrendered the 3rd-most touchdowns through the air in football: 2.40 per game this year.
  • The Bengals linebackers project as the 6th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 14-point advantage, the Packers are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • The model projects the Packers to be the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • With a 48.0% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-least pass-centric offense in the league in this respect has been the Packers.
  • The model projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.05 seconds per snap.
  • The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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