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Jordan Love

Jordan Love TD Passes
Player Prop Week 19

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-109/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Green Bay Packers will be starting backup QB Clayton Tune in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest rate in football against the Bears defense this year (73.9% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the most passing touchdowns in football: 1.82 per game this year.
  • The Bears linebackers grade out as the worst group of LBs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The Packers rank as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 48.5% red zone pass rate.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (just 54.9 per game on average).
  • The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • The leading projections forecast Jordan Love to attempt 32.2 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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