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Jordan Love

Jordan Love TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+106/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -134.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 60.4% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
  • The projections expect Jordan Love to throw 36.2 passes in this contest, on balance: the 8th-most among all QBs.
  • Jordan Love ranks as one of the most accurate passers in football this year with a fantastic 68.7% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 81st percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 44.9% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year, the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL in this setting has been the Packers.
  • The projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • This year, the imposing Detroit Lions defense has yielded a measly 66.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.
  • When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Detroit's group of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

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