Jordan Love TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2025

Updated Sep 7, 2025 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.3% red zone pass rate.
This week, Jordan Love is predicted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 10th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.0.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense last year: 4th-most in the league.
In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.1 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The 5th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers last year (just 55.7 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL against the Detroit Lions defense last year (66.9% Adjusted Completion%).
Last year, the daunting Detroit Lions defense has allowed a mere 1.18 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 4th-smallest rate in football.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit's collection of safeties has been exceptional last year, grading out as the best in the league.

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