Jordan Love Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Love Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jordan Love has been a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this season (10.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (0.0%).
As it relates to run support (and the significance it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Packers profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL last year.
With a fantastic total of 7.5 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (97th percentile), Jordan Love rates as one of the best running quarterbacks in football this year.
The Chiefs defense owns the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up 4.58 adjusted yards-per-carry.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties profile as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

A passing game script is indicated by the Packers being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers as the 6th-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 39.4% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 64.0 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Packers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).

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