Jordan Love Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

Completions

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 3:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Love Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Packers being a huge -8.5-point underdog in this game.
The projections expect the Packers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
In this week's game, Jordan Love is anticipated by the predictive model to average the 7th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.7.
The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).
Jordan Love comes in as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a 61.1% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 12th percentile.
This year, the imposing Lions defense has yielded a puny 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-smallest rate in football.

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