Jordan Akins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Akins

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Akins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 69.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.4 plays per game.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.5%) to tight ends this year (62.5%).
The Houston Texans offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.