Jordan Akins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Akins

TE · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Akins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jordan Akins to accrue 4.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 8th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Houston Texans O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.