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Jordan Akins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-112/-117).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.Jordan Akins has accounted for a monstrous 9.2% of his offense's air yards this year: 77th percentile among tight ends.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-worst paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.55 seconds per snap.The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.The Houston Texans offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
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