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Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Jordan Addison Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-255).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +235.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -9-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (64.0% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Vikings.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • With an extraordinary 25.0% Red Zone Target% (92nd percentile) this year, Jordan Addison rates among the wideouts with the most usage near the end zone in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 62.2 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
  • Jordan Addison has rushed for 0.07 TDs per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers and tight ends (95th percentile).
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Lions defense this year (66.5% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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