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Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Jordan Addison Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-235).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -235.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (64.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Vikings.
  • The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Jordan Addison has run for 0.07 TDs per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the highest marks in football among wide receivers and tight ends (95th percentile).
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Chargers defense this year (65.8% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest receiving touchdowns in the league to wide receivers: 0.43 per game this year.

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