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Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Addison Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-375).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -355 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -375.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.1% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.

With a high 21.7% Red Zone Target Share (84th percentile) last year, Jordan Addison ranks among the wide receivers with the highest volume near the end zone in football.

Jordan Addison has put up a massive 84.0 air yards per game last year: 89th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.

The Vikings are willing to include receivers in their ground game, and Jordan Addison has earned 1.8% of red zone carries last year (0th among wideouts).

Jordan Addison has rushed for 0.07 TDs per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league when it comes to WRs and TEs (94th percentile).

Since the start of last season, the strong Steelers defense has allowed a meager 0.85 TDs through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.

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