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Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Jordan Addison Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +235 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +235.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.6% red zone pass rate.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • With a sizeable 23.1% Red Zone Target Share (90th percentile) this year, Jordan Addison rates as one of the WRs with the most usage near the end zone in football.
  • Jordan Addison has accrued many more air yards this year (95.0 per game) than he did last year (84.0 per game).
  • Jordan Addison's 59.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 52.3.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.
  • Jordan Addison's 58.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a noteable reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 68.7% figure.

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