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Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Jordan Addison Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+160/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -230.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -8.5-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • In this week's game, Jordan Addison is forecasted by the model to place in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.4 targets.
  • Jordan Addison's pass-catching performance been refined this year, totaling 5.3 adjusted catches compared to a measly 4.2 last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 62.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
  • Jordan Addison's 88.0% snap rate this year marks a noteworthy progression in his offensive usage over last year's 75.9% mark.
  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (61.9%).
  • The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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